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It’s officially February. The Orioles will be playing
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baseball in Sarasota before the month is out."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Commentary & AnalysisOrioles ProspectsOrioles Game RecapsOrioles News and RumorsCamdencastBird DroppingsFriday Bird Droppings: Where there will be baseball this monthNew http://www.rockiesfanproshop.com/authentic-chad-bettis-jersey ,570commentsIt’s officially February. The Orioles will be playing baseball in Sarasota before the month is out.ESTShareTweetShareShareFriday Bird Droppings: Where there will be baseball this monthButch Dill-USA TODAY SportsGood morning, Camden Chatters.Cold enough for ya? Har har!Seriously, though, the weather around these parts (and especially in the Midwest) is absolutely miserable right now, with the polar vortex bringing dangerously cold temperatures to much of the country. Be safe, and consider staying indoors if you can.With the harsh winter in full swing, it’s hard to believe that there will be actual baseball this very month (depending on whether you consider spring training to be actual baseball). We’ve made it to February, which means we’re tantalizingly close to players reporting to camp and preparing for the 2019 season. Orioles pitchers and catchers report in 11 days, the rest of the squad reports by the 17th, and the Grapefruit League schedule begins on Feb. 23.I, for one, am more than ready to get started. I’m ready to hear which players are in the best shape of their life, which pitchers have the ball coming out of their hand good, and which hitters are swatting bombs in intrasquad games.And yes, we all know the Orioles are probably going to be terrible this season, at least in terms of wins and losses. But it’s still baseball. And baseball is always better than no baseball.Soon, my friends. Soon.LinksWait may be long for another Orioles Hall of Famer - BaltimoreBaseball.comNow that Mike Mussina has elected not to wear an Orioles logo on his Hall of Fame plaque, who’s the next player who actually will? As Rich Dubroff says, it could be a long time before that player comes around.Are the Orioles headed in the right direction? | Baltimore OriolesJoe Trezza answers questions from readers, including one poor, naive soul who asks if the Orioles could trade Chris Davis in July if he gets hot. Sir http://www.rockiesfanproshop.com/authentic-chad-bettis-jersey , you are adorable.Pondering a few questions as spring training gets close - Steve MelewskiSteve Melewski raises a few questions about the Orioles, which reminds us that the O’s are currently lacking a starting catcher, middle infielder, and two-fifths of the rotation. Like I said before, this season could be ugly.A reunion between the Orioles and Adam Jones is looking like a long shot - Baltimore SunNot unexpected, but too bad.Castro would find relief in throwing more strikes - School of RochSpeaking as someone who has covered a few FanFests, one good thing about it is that you can gather enough quotes in one day to dole out for weeks’ worth of blog posts. Here it’s time to hear what Miguel Castro had to say that day.Orioles birthdaysIs today your birthday? Happy birthday! You have four O’s birthday buddies, none more notable than Orioles Hall of Famer and prominent member of #TeamPaul, Paul Blair. Blair spent 13 years in Baltimore and may well have been the most gifted defensive outfielder in franchise history, racking up eight Gold Gloves for his stupendous leather in center field. Combine that with his solid offensive performance and you have a pretty darn valuable player. Blair would have been 75 today, but he died the day after Christmas in 2013.Other ex-Orioles with birthdays today are 2012 two-gamer Joe Mahoney (32), 1998 outfielder Rich Becker (47), and lefty Kent Mercker (51), whom the O’s traded to bring Eddie Murray back to Baltimore in 1996. Will he make it?If so, how high will he sit in the Pantheon of the great second basemen?"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Houston Astros NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsProjecting Jose Altuve as a Hall of FamerNew,21commentsWill he make it?If so, how high will he sit in the Pantheon of the great second basemen?CSTShareTweetShareShareProjecting Jose Altuve as a Hall of FamerShanna Lockwood-USA TODAY SportsObviously, it is hazardous to project a player at about the mid-point of his career as a Hall of Famer.Some might even call it a jinx. After all, he might turn out to be an early bloomer with a short career, or he might get injured, who knows?But I’ve been thinking about this a while Wade Davis Jersey , and I’m going to step out on the plank. Of course, selection to the Hall of Fame is more art than science, but I am going to compare the early career statistics of Jose Altuve to the modern era (post 1920) Hall of Fame second basemen’s early careers and attempt to project how his career will ultimately compare.One of the basic sabremetric tools for evaluating a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness is JAWS, which, simply put, averages a player’s best seven seasons by WAR (wins above replacement) with his total career WAR. On the chart below there are fifteen Hall of Fame second baseman, post-1920, and Altuve.They are ranked by JAWS, but their career WAR, peak seven WAR and career OPS+ are included as well. In order to compare these players with Altuve, I also calculated their OPS+ in their first seven complete seasons, their WAR for their first seven seasons, and the year by age of their peak season by OPS+. Altuve just completed his seventh full year so that is the reason for the bWAR and OPS+ 1st 7 on the charts.At the end of the chart I put OPS+ and WAR for the first three seasons.This was done to see if a player was an early bloomer or was put in the Majors too soon. If a player has a high first seven average but started slower than average , this would actually cause his projection to be underestimated.Jackie Robinson is not included in this chart because of the unusual nature of his career.He did not begin his big league career until age 28 and only played 10 years so his experience is not comparable to that of Altuve or the others. JAWS Hall of Fame Chart, Modern Era 2nd BasemenHOF 2nd basemanJAWSbWARPeak 7OPS+OPS+ 1st 7bWAR 1st 7peak seasonOPS+ 1st 3bWAR 1st 3HOF 2nd basemanJAWSbWARPeak 7OPS+OPS+ 1st 7bWAR 1st 7peak seasonOPS+ 1st 3bWAR 1st 3So let’s compare Altuve’s first seven years to the rest of the Hall of Fame pack. Of course, as anyone who knows baseball History would know, Rogers Hornsby is in a category by himself among second basemen, and perhaps one of the top five hitters of all time, although his productive years came to an early end around 33. But in this list Altuve’s first seven year’s OPS+ was second only to Hornsby at 128.Altuve’s first seven year WAR was fourth on this list, behind Hornsby and early bloomers Frankie Frisch and Joe Gordon. What makes that even more remarkable is that his first three year WAR was less, often by a considerable amount http://www.rockiesfanproshop.com/authentic-chad-bettis-jersey , than the top ten players on this list. Altuve did not begin to show his Hall of Fame tendencies until later in his career than most of these other players and yet still, after seven years he is ahead of almost all of them at the same stage in their careers.Now for the treacherous part of this journey, projecting JAWS. Remember, JAWS is the average of the peak seven years WAR total and the career WAR totalFirst I have to project Altuve’s career WAR total. To do that I totaled the career WAR of the fifteen players on this list as well as their first seven year WAR.I added twelve career WAR to the total to roughly compensate for the four years lost to WWII by Billy Herman and Joe Gordon. By comparing these two totals I can get an average for how many more WAR a player gets after his first seven years. The numbers come to 1014.33 total career WAR divided by 455.1 seven years total WAR, which equals 2.22 times more WAR after the first seven years on average. (1014.33/455.1=2.22) If I multiply Altuve’s seven year WAR by 2.22 I project his career WAR at 76.6. This would put him fifth on this list.Obviously, he could do better than this if he has a longer than average career, or turns out to be a late bloomer, like Joe Morgan, Charlie Gehringer, or Rod Carew. Or he could do worse, if the converse were true. My method of extrapolation averages the length of career and the late versus early bloomer variability, which no one can predict.Next we have to project Altuve’s best seven WAR to complete the JAWS projection. To do that I will average the WAR for the first seven seasons for all the players and compare that to the average peak seven WAR seasons for all the players. The peak seven WAR was 656.6 total and the first seven WAR was 455.1. Dividing 656.6 by 455.1 equals 1.44. (656.6/455.1=1.44) That means that the average peak seven season WAR is 1.44 times greater than the average 1st seven season WAR. So if we multiply Altuve’s first seven season WAR by 1.44 we can estimate what his peak seven WAR will be if his progression is average. By this method I project Altuve’s seven year peak WAR to be 49.7. (34.5 X 1.44 = 49.7) That would put him fifth, microscopically behind Rod Carew.So to get JAWS we must average the projected peak seven WAR with the projected career total WAR, that is 75.6 + 49.7 / 2 which equals 62.7. JAWS. This too would put Altuve at fifth on this list, behind Rod Carew and ahead of Ryne Sandberg. The average for Hall of Fame second basemen is 57, but that number is skewed high by Rogers Hornsby’s ridiculous numbers.If I had to choose whether Altuve would do worse than these projections or better, I would say better.His first three years by OPS+ or WAR were below the top ten, so his first seven season averages probably underestimate his projections. In other words, the trajectory of the last four years looks even better than what my formulas show.An interesting statistical anomaly that supports this: nine out of the fifteen players on the chart had their best seasons by OPS+ from the age 29 and after. Hall of Fame second basemen tend to be late bloomers, especially the better ones. So perhaps Jose’s best days are still ahead. On the other hand, to keep up with Joe Morgan and Rod Carew Adam Ottavino Jersey , he will have to be both a late bloomer and have a long career.Another projection I made using this data was OPS+. The first seven year OPS+ for all the players here averaged 116. It just so turned out that their career OPS averages were also roughly 116. So, for this bunch anyway, the way they hit in the first seven full years of their careers was pretty much how they would track for the rest of their careers. So by this metric, Altuve should end up with a career 128 OPS+, which would rank fourth.Of course, Altuve has already checked all the boxes as far as career awards is concerned in his seven full years: MVP, six time All Star, five time Silver Slugger, three time batting title, Golden Glove, World Championship in his MVP year.By comparison, by this stage in Joe Morgan’s career his only commensurate awards were two All Star appearances, although he would end up with 10 such appearances, along with 2 MVP’s, 5 Golden Gloves, two World Championships, and a silver slugger.Something highly unexpected would have to happen for Jose Altuve to not make the Hall of Fame.At his current rate he could wind up a top five Hall of Famer among modern era second basemen. With enough longevity a first round selection for such a beloved rags to riches kind of character is not out of the question.
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